Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.514960 1.716760 1.931224 2.175666 2.446090 2.735634 3.068625
2024-12-29 1.299984 1.585909 1.908649 2.298199 2.753810 3.267927 3.889968
2025-01-05 1.053910 1.381680 1.773810 2.273513 2.888972 3.617561 4.540223
2025-01-12 0.876810 1.233660 1.685369 2.291560 3.075218 4.044807 5.324555
2025-01-19 0.722343 1.091405 1.585627 2.283364 3.228453 4.447804 6.120783
2025-01-26 0.626729 1.013541 1.559774 2.368057 3.510504 5.041091 7.214623
2025-02-02 0.540104 0.934969 1.522673 2.433085 3.773562 5.634720 8.364241
2025-02-09 0.458889 0.851137 1.466539 2.463933 3.992017 6.187618 9.507694
2025-02-16 0.392546 0.779631 1.419115 2.501723 4.224250 6.780216 10.756802
2025-02-23 0.322186 0.688112 1.326307 2.456512 4.325375 7.189850 11.774684
2025-03-02 0.257075 0.592785 1.212275 2.361181 4.336327 7.463270 12.610556
2025-03-09 0.218260 0.539958 1.164743 2.372182 4.520270 8.018141 13.916990
2025-03-16 0.179752 0.480987 1.099914 2.350639 4.658768 8.530970 15.228951
2025-03-23 0.158319 0.454489 1.094069 2.437783 4.996902 9.400517 17.182701
2025-03-30 0.127307 0.397542 1.016432 2.376815 5.063116 9.820818 18.434323
2025-04-06 0.105680 0.357746 0.967999 2.367024 5.222949 10.415399 20.022957
2025-04-13 0.086459 0.318421 0.913022 2.335513 5.337475 10.939019 21.527823
2025-04-20 0.075836 0.300361 0.904539 2.402498 5.651985 11.846076 23.761230
2025-04-27 0.065831 0.280993 0.889234 2.452210 5.936593 12.719220 25.991141
2025-05-04 0.055972 0.258627 0.861794 2.469985 6.156455 13.486437 28.077833
2025-05-11 0.047944 0.239628 0.839539 2.496881 6.398216 14.312675 30.323873
2025-05-18 0.038746 0.212283 0.787736 2.442927 6.457104 14.784608 31.935174
2025-05-25 0.030058 0.182564 0.721532 2.341086 6.396365 15.011378 33.091908